A Machine Learning model for long-term power generation forecasting at bidding zone level

Sep 11, 2019

AUTHORS
Michela Moschella, Alessandro Betti, Emanuele Crisostomi and Mauro Tucci.

ABSTRACT
The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and more recently many statistical or machine learning algorithms, and data-driven methods in general, are becoming subject of intense research. While generally the power research community focuses on power forecasting at the level of single plants, in a short future horizon of time, in this time we are interested in aggregated macro-area power generation (i.e., in a territory of size greater than 100000 km2) with a future horizon of interest up to 15 days ahead. Real data are used to validate the proposed forecasting methodology on a test set of several months.

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One year Operation of an Innovative Condition Monitoring Technique in Four Hydropower Plants

One year Operation of an Innovative Condition Monitoring Technique in Four Hydropower Plants

AUTHORS:
Lorenzo Gigoni, Alessandro Betti, Emanuele Crisostomi, Alessandro Franco, Mauro Tucci, Fabrizio Bizzarri and Debora Mucci.
ABSTRACT:
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognized as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the impact of single components in providing accurate predictions. In this paper, we extensively compare simple forecasting methodologies with more sophisticated ones over 32 photovoltaic (PV) plants of different sizes and technology over a whole year. Also, we try to evaluate the impact of weather conditions and weather forecasts on the prediction of PV power generation.

Web tools concerning performance analysis and planning support for solar energy plants starting from remotely sensed optical images

Web tools concerning performance analysis and planning support for solar energy plants starting from remotely sensed optical images

AUTHORS:
Lorenzo Gigoni, Alessandro Betti, Emanuele Crisostomi, Alessandro Franco, Mauro Tucci, Fabrizio Bizzarri and Debora Mucci.
ABSTRACT:
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognized as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the impact of single components in providing accurate predictions. In this paper, we extensively compare simple forecasting methodologies with more sophisticated ones over 32 photovoltaic (PV) plants of different sizes and technology over a whole year. Also, we try to evaluate the impact of weather conditions and weather forecasts on the prediction of PV power generation.

NREL Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications

NREL Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications

AUTHORS:
Lorenzo Gigoni, Alessandro Betti, Emanuele Crisostomi, Alessandro Franco, Mauro Tucci, Fabrizio Bizzarri and Debora Mucci.
ABSTRACT:
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognized as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the impact of single components in providing accurate predictions. In this paper, we extensively compare simple forecasting methodologies with more sophisticated ones over 32 photovoltaic (PV) plants of different sizes and technology over a whole year. Also, we try to evaluate the impact of weather conditions and weather forecasts on the prediction of PV power generation.

Condition monitoring and early diagnostics methodologies for hydropower plants

Condition monitoring and early diagnostics methodologies for hydropower plants

AUTHORS:
Alessandro Betti, Emanuele Crisostomi, Gianluca Paolinelli, Antonio Piazzi, Fabrizio Ruffini and Mauro Tucci.
ABSTRACT:
Hydropower plants are one of the most convenient option for power generation, as they generate energy exploiting a renewable source, they have relatively low operating and maintenance costs, and they may be used to provide ancillary services, exploiting the large reservoirs of available water. The recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and in machine learning methodologies are seen as fundamental enablers to upgrade and modernize the current operation of most hydropower plants, in terms of condition monitoring, early diagnostics and eventually predictive maintenance. While very few works, or running technologies, have been documented so far for the hydro case, in this paper we propose a novel Key Performance Indicator (KPI) that we have recently developed and tested on operating hydropower plants. In particular, we show that after more than one year of operation it has been able to identify several faults, and to support the operation and maintenance tasks of plant operators. Also we show that the proposed KPI outperforms conventional multivariable process control charts, like the Hotelling t2 index.

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